The Contribution of Dynamic Interannual Variability to Ozone Trends

At middle latitudes the total column ozone and the lower stratospheric ozone mixing ratio exhibit natural variability. Models and statistical analyses of observations such as SAGE ozone profiles and TOMS column measurements show that seasonal cycle, solar cycle, and interannual dynamical variability and dynamical phenomena such as the quasi- biennial oscillation all contribute to ozone variability. These must be accounted for when deriving ozone trends. Systematic or random changes in the atmospheric circulation may also contribute to ozone trends. It is presently unclear how much of the ozone trend derived from observations is due to changes in the chemical composition of the stratosphere and how much is due to changes in the atmospheric circulation. We are attempting to resolve this issue by comparing a twenty-five year simulation of ozone with fixed source gas boundary conditions with an identical simulation with time dependent source gas boundary conditions. Both simulations are driven with output from a general circulation model that produces realistic interannual variability in dynamical forcing. The model trend in ozone due to changes in composition is determined from the difference in these simulations. We compare these trends with trends determined from observations and model output using the same analysis techniques. Initial results emphasize the complications to attribution of observed ozone trends to dynamical and photochemical effects that are due to interrelationships between trends in transport, temperature, and photochemical effects. It may not be possible to describe the ozone trend as a superposition of dynamical and photochemical contributions.