How Well are Recent Climate Variability Signals Resolved by Satellite Radiative Flux Estimates?

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. Understanding the character of radiative flux estimates and relating them to variations in other energy fluxes and climate state variables is key to improving our understanding of climate. In this work we will evaluate several recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from rnid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and HlRS operational soundings profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Several estimates of downward LW flux at the surface inferred from microwave data are also examined. Since these products have been evaluated with Baseline Surface Radiation Network data over land we focus over ocean regions and use the DOE/NOAA/NASA Shipboard Ocean Atmospheric Radiation (SOAR) surface flux measurements to characterize performance of these data sets under both clear and cloudy conditions. Some aspects of performance are stratified according to SST and vertical motion regimes. Comparisons to the TRMM/CERES SRB data in 1998 are also interpreted. These radiative fluxes are then analyzed to determine how surface (and TOA) radiative exchanges respond to interannual signals of ENS0 warm and cold events. Our analysis includes regional changes as well as integrated signals over land, ocean and various latitude bands. Changes in water vapor and cloud forcing signatures are prominent on interannual time scales. Prominent signals are also found in the SW fluxes for the Pinatubo volcanic event. These systematic changes in fluxes are related to changes in large-scale circulations and energy transport in the atmosphere and ocean. Some estimates of signal-to-noise and reliability are discussed to place our results in context.