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A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.
Document ID
20040172700
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Hansen, J.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Sato, M.
Glascoe, J.
Ruedy, R.
Date Acquired
August 22, 2013
Publication Date
April 14, 1998
Publication Information
Publication: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume: 95
Issue: 8
ISSN: 0027-8424
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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