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Comparison of Recent Modeled and Observed Trends in Total Column OzoneWe present a comparison of trends in total column ozone from 10 two-dimensional and 4 three-dimensional models and solar backscatter ultraviolet-2 (SBUV/2) satellite observations from the period 1979-2003. Trends for the past (1979-2000), the recent 7 years (1996-2003), and the future (2000-2050) are compared. We have analyzed the data using both simple linear trends and linear trends derived with a hockey stick method including a turnaround point in 1996. If the last 7 years, 1996-2003, are analyzed in isolation, the SBUV/2 observations show no increase in ozone, and most of the models predict continued depletion, although at a lesser rate. In sharp contrast to this, the recent data show positive trends for the Northern and the Southern Hemispheres if the hockey stick method with a turnaround point in 1996 is employed for the models and observations. The analysis shows that the observed positive trends in both hemispheres in the recent 7-year period are much larger than what is predicted by the models. The trends derived with the hockey stick method are very dependent on the values just before the turnaround point. The analysis of the recent data therefore depends greatly on these years being representative of the overall trend. Most models underestimate the past trends at middle and high latitudes. This is particularly pronounced in the Northern Hemisphere. Quantitatively, there is much disagreement among the models concerning future trends. However, the models agree that future trends are expected to be positive and less than half the magnitude of the past downward trends. Examination of the model projections shows that there is virtually no correlation between the past and future trends from the individual models.
Document ID
20070017492
Acquisition Source
Headquarters
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Andersen, S. B.
(Danish Meteorological Inst. Copenhagen, Denmark)
Weatherhead, E. C.
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Stevermer, A.
(Colorado Univ. Boulder, CO, United States)
Austin, J.
(University Corp. for Atmospheric Research Princeton, NJ, United States)
Bruehl, C.
(Max-Planck-Inst. fuer Chemie Mainz, Germany)
Fleming, E. L.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
deGrandpre, J.
(McGill Univ. Montreal, Quebec, Canada)
Grewe, V.
(Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany)
Isaksen, I.
(Oslo Univ. Norway)
Pitari, G.
(Aquila Univ. Italy)
Portmann, R. W.
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
Rognerud, B.
(Oslo Univ. Norway)
Rosenfield, J. E.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Smyshlyaev, S.
(Russian State Hydrometeorological Univ. Saint Petersburg, Russia)
Nagashima, T.
(National Inst. for Environmental Studies Tsukuba, Japan)
Velders, G. J. M.
(National Inst. of Public Health Belthoven, Netherlands)
Weisenstein, D. K.
(Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Lexington, MA, United States)
Xia, J.
(Illinois Univ. Urbana, IL, United States)
Date Acquired
August 23, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2006
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research
Volume: 111
Issue: D2
ISSN: 0148-0227
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: EVK2-2001-00024
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNH04CC39C
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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