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The Remarkable 2003--2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990sThe 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the approximately 50-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly 2 months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with 2 previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged midwinter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over 2 standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (7 in the past 6 years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during 6 of the past 7 years, with 5 having much lower than usual potential for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of 5 of the last 7 years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.
Document ID
20070024434
Acquisition Source
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Manney, Gloria L.
(Jet Propulsion Lab., California Inst. of Tech. Pasadena, CA, United States)
Kruger, Kirstin
(Freie Univ. Berlin, Germany)
Sabutis, Joseph L.
(New Mexico Highlands Univ. Las Vegas, NM, United States)
Sena, Sara Amina
(New Mexico Highlands Univ. Las Vegas, NM, United States)
Pawson, Steven
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 23, 2013
Publication Date
February 25, 2005
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Volume: 110
ISSN: 0148-0227
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
ozone
Artic
climate change

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