Characterization of the Catalog Fengyun-1C Fragments and Their Long-term Effect on the LEO Environment

The intentional breakup of Fengyun-1C on 11 January 2007 created the most severe orbital debris cloud in history. More than 2500 large fragments were identified and tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network by the end of the year. The altitude where the event occurred was probably the worst location for a major breakup in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, since it was already highly populated with operational satellites and debris generated from previous breakups. The addition of so many fragments not only poses a realistic threat to operational satellites in the region, but also increases the instability (i.e., collision cascade effect) of the debris population there. Preliminary analysis of the large Fengyun-1C fragments indicates that their size and area-to-mass ratio (A/M) distributions are very different from those of other known events. About half of the fragments appear to be composed of light-weight materials and more than 100 of them have A/M values exceeding 1 square meter per kilogram, consistent with thermal blanket pieces. In addition, the orbital elements of the fragments suggest nontrivial velocity gain by the fragment cloud during the impact. These important characteristics were incorporated into a numerical simulation to assess the long-term impact of the Fengyun-1C fragments to the LEO debris environment. The main objectives of the simulation were to evaluate (1) the collision probabilities between the Fengyun-1C fragments and the rest of the catalog population and (2) the collision activities and population growth in the region in the next 100 years.