A Comparison of Three Catastrophic On-Orbit Collisions

Orbital debris environment models, such as NASA's LEGEND model, show that accidental collisions between satellites will begin to be the dominant cause for future debris population growth within the foreseeable future. The collisional breakup models employed are obviously a critical component of the environment models. The Chinese Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test which destroyed the Fengyun-1C weather satellite provided a rare, but not unique, chance to compare the breakup models against an actual on-orbit collision. Measurements from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), for debris larger than 10-cm, and from Haystack, for debris larger than 1-cm, show that the number of fragments created from Fengyun significantly exceeds model predictions using the NASA Standard Collisional Breakup Model. However, it may not be appropriate to alter the model to match this one, individual case. Two other on-orbit collisions have occurred in the past which have produced significant numbers of debris fragments. In September 1985, the U.S. conducted an ASAT test against the Solwind P-78 spacecraft at an altitude of approximately 525 km. A year later, in September 1986, the Delta 180 payload was struck by its Delta II rocket body in a planned collision at 220 km altitude. Although no Haystack data is available in 1985-6 and very few debris pieces were cataloged from Delta 180 due to its low altitude, measurements were collected in dedicated tests by phased array radars in the SSN in the days after each test. This paper will examine the available radar data from each test and compare and contrast the results with model predictions and with the results from the more recent Fengyun ASAT test.