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If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.
Document ID
20080043898
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Pesnell. William Dean
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
May 27, 2008
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Meeting Information
Meeting: 2008 Joint Assembly
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL
Country: United States
Start Date: May 27, 2008
End Date: May 30, 2008
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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