Sensitivity of Polar Stratospheric Ozone Loss to Uncertainties in Chemical Reaction Kinetics

Several recent observational and laboratory studies of processes involved in polar stratospheric ozone loss have prompted a reexamination of aspects of our understanding for this key indicator of global change. To a large extent, our confidence in understanding and projecting changes in polar and global ozone is based on our ability to simulate these processes in numerical models of chemistry and transport. The fidelity of the models is assessed in comparison with a wide range of observations. These models depend on laboratory-measured kinetic reaction rates and photolysis cross sections to simulate molecular interactions. A typical stratospheric chemistry mechanism has on the order of 50- 100 species undergoing over a hundred intermolecular reactions and several tens of photolysis reactions. The rates of all of these reactions are subject to uncertainty, some substantial. Given the complexity of the models, however, it is difficult to quantify uncertainties in many aspects of system. In this study we use a simple box-model scenario for Antarctic ozone to estimate the uncertainty in loss attributable to known reaction kinetic uncertainties. Following the method of earlier work, rates and uncertainties from the latest laboratory evaluations are applied in random combinations. We determine the key reactions and rates contributing the largest potential errors and compare the results to observations to evaluate which combinations are consistent with atmospheric data. Implications for our theoretical and practical understanding of polar ozone loss will be assessed.