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Estimating when the Antarctic Ozone Hole will RecoverThe Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-2 1 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international a'greements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We estimate that the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of size decrease in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. Estimates of the ozone hole's recovery from models reveal important differences that will be discussed.
Document ID
20080045441
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Newman, Paul A.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Nash, Eric R.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Douglass, Anne R.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Nielsen, J. Eric
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Pawson, Steven
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Stolarski, Richard S.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
September 23, 2007
Subject Category
Space Sciences (General)
Meeting Information
Meeting: Symposium for the 20th Anniversary of the Montreal Protocol
Location: Athens
Country: Greece
Start Date: September 23, 2007
End Date: September 26, 2007
Sponsors: National Observatory of Athens
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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