Probabilistic Assessment of Risks from Solar Energetic Particle Events

Solar energetic particle events pose a radiation hazard for space crews and a risk of harmful radiation effects in spacecraft electronics. To assess these risks, engineers need to know the worst-case environment that they must plan for or design to withstand. Depending on the application, engineers may need to know the instantaneous worst-case environment, the radiation environment that accumulates during one solar particle event or the cumulative worst-case environment for their entire mission. Also, depending on their application, they will need to know this environment at a confidence level which they will specify. We will present a probabilistic model for the peak fluxes, event-integrated fluences and mission-integrated fluences for solar protons and heavy ions. The model will provide these worst-case environments at user-specified confidence levels. Examples of the use of this model will also be shown.