Long-Term Changes in Light Scattering in Chesapeake Bay Inferred from Secchi Depth, Light Attenuation, and Remote Sensing Measurements

The relationship between the Secchi depth (Z(sub SD)) and the diffuse attenuation coefficient for photosynthetically active radiation (K(sub d)(PAR)), and in particular the product of the two, Z(sub SD) X K(sub d)(PAR), is governed primarily by the ratio of light scattering to absorption. We analyzed measurements of Z(sub SD) and K(sub d)(PAR) at main stem stations in Chesapeake Bay and found that the Z(sub SD) X K(sub d)(PAR) product has declined at rates varying from 0.020 to 0.033 /yr over the 17 to 25 years of measurement, implying that there has been a long -term increase in the scattering-to-absorption ratio. Remote sensing reflectance at the green wavelength most relevant to Z(sub SD) and K(sub d)(PAR) in these waters, R(sub rs)(555), did not exhibit an increasing trend over the 10 years of available measurements. To reconcile the observations we constructed a bio-optical model to calculate Z(sub SD), K(sub d)(PAR), Z(sub SD) X K(sub d)(PAR), and R(sub rs)(555) as a function of light attenuating substances and their mass-specific absorption and scattering coefficients. When simulations were based exclusively on changes in concentrations of light attenuating substances, a declining trend in Z(sub SD) E K(sub d) entailed an increasing trend in R(sub rs)(555), contrary to observations. To simulate both decreasing Z(sub SD) X K(sub d)(PAR) and stationary R(sub rs)(555), it was necessary to allow for a declining trend in the ratio of backscattering to total scattering. Within our simulations, this was accomplished by increasing the relative proportion of organic detritus with high mass-specific scattering and low backscattering ratio. An alternative explanation not explicitly modeled is an increasing tendency for the particulate matter to occur in large aggregates. Data to discriminate between these alternatives are not available.