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Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties
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Author and Affiliation:
Plumer, Eric(NASA, Washington, DC, United States);
Elliott, Darren(Tecolote Research, Inc., Santa Barbara, CA, United States)
Abstract: Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.
Publication Date: Jun 18, 2013
Document ID:
20130013736
(Acquired Jun 25, 2013)
Subject Category: ECONOMICS AND COST ANALYSIS
Report/Patent Number: HQ-STI-13-050
Document Type: Oral/Visual Presentation
Meeting Information: International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association (ICEAA) 2013 Professional Development and Training Workshop; 18-23 Jun. 2013; New Orleans, LA; United States
Meeting Sponsor: International Cost Estimating and Analysis Assoc.; Vienna, VA, United States
Financial Sponsor: NASA; Washington, DC, United States
Organization Source: NASA; Washington, DC, United States
Description: 23p; In English; Original contains color illustrations
Distribution Limits: Unclassified; Publicly available; Unlimited
Rights: Copyright; Distribution as joint owner in the copyright
NASA Terms: COST ESTIMATES; COST ANALYSIS; SPACE MISSIONS; WEIGHT (MASS); MISSION PLANNING; SPACECRAFT INSTRUMENTS; PAYLOADS; RISK; PREDICTIONS
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