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Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk ModelA physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.
Document ID
20140010030
Acquisition Source
Ames Research Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Gee, Ken
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA United States)
Huynh, Loc C.
(Science and Technology Corp. Moffett Field, CA, United States)
Manning, Ted
(NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA United States)
Date Acquired
July 23, 2014
Publication Date
June 22, 2014
Subject Category
Space Transportation And Safety
Spacecraft Design, Testing And Performance
Report/Patent Number
ARC-E-DAA-TN13702
Meeting Information
Meeting: Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management (PSAM)
Location: Honolulu, HI
Country: United States
Start Date: June 22, 2014
End Date: June 27, 2014
Sponsors: International Association for PSAM, American Inst. of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNA10DF26C
WBS: WBS 585777.02.40.07.06.20
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
descent and landing
risk analysis
TPS
entry
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