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The Major Stratospheric Sudden Warming of January 2013: Analyses and Forecasts in the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation SystemWe examine the major stratosphere sudden warming (SSW) that occurred on 6 January 2013, using output from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) GEOS-5 (Goddard Earth Observing System) near-real-time data assimilation system (DAS). Results show that the major SSW of January 2013 falls into the vortex splitting type of SSW, with the initial planetary wave breaking occurring near 10 hPa. The vertical flux of wave activity at the tropopause responsible for the SSW occurred mainly in the Pacific Hemisphere, including the a pulse associated with the preconditioning of the polar vortex by wave 1 identified on 23 December 2012. While most of the vertical wave activity flux was in the Pacific Hemisphere, a rapidly developing tropospheric weather system over the North Atlantic on 28 December is shown to have produced a strong transient upward wave activity flux into the lower stratosphere coinciding with the peak of the SSW event. In addition, the GEOS-5 5-day forecasts accurately predicted the major SSW of January 2013 as well as the upper tropospheric disturbances responsible for the warming. The overall success of the 5-day forecasts provides motivation to produce regular 10-day forecasts with GEOS-5, to better support studies of stratosphere-troposphere interaction.
Document ID
20140012679
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
Authors
Coy, Lawrence
(Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Lanham, MD, United States)
Pawson, Steven
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Date Acquired
September 26, 2014
Publication Date
February 16, 2014
Publication Information
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN12939
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG12HP06C
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
SSW
GEOS-5
GMAO
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