Surface Nitrification: A Major Uncertainty in Marine N2O Emissions

The ocean is responsible for up to a third of total global nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions, but uncertainties in emission rates of this potent greenhouse gas are high (approaching 100%). Here we use a marine biogeochemical model to assess six major uncertainties in estimates of N2O production, thereby providing guidance in how future studies may most effectively reduce uncertainties in current and future marine N2O emissions. Potential surface N2O production from nitrification causes the largest uncertainty in N2O emissions (estimated up to approximately 1.6 Tg N/yr (sup -1) or 48% of modeled values), followed by the unknown oxygen concentration at which N2O production switches to N2O consumption (0.8 Tg N/yr (sup -1)or 24% of modeled values). Other uncertainties are minor, cumulatively changing regional emissions by less than 15%. If production of N2O by surface nitrification could be ruled out in future studies, uncertainties in marine N2O emissions would be halved.