Geo-Statistical Approach to Estimating Asteroid Exploration Parameters

NASA's vision for space exploration calls for a human visit to a near earth asteroid (NEA). Potential human operations at an asteroid include exploring a number of sites and analyzing and collecting multiple surface samples at each site. In this paper two approaches to formulation and scheduling of human exploration activities are compared given uncertain information regarding the asteroid prior to visit. In the first approach a probability model was applied to determine best estimates of mission duration and exploration activities consistent with exploration goals and existing prior data about the expected aggregate terrain information. These estimates were compared to a second approach or baseline plan where activities were constrained to fit within an assumed mission duration. The results compare the number of sites visited, number of samples analyzed per site, and the probability of achieving mission goals related to surface characterization for both cases.