Record Details

Approaches to Evaluating Probability of Collision Uncertainty
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Author and Affiliation:
Hejduk, Matthew D.(Astrorum Consulting, LLC, Waco, TX, United States);
Johnson, Lauren C.(Omitron, Inc., Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Abstract: While the two-dimensional probability of collision (Pc) calculation has served as the main input to conjunction analysis risk assessment for over a decade, it has done this mostly as a point estimate, with relatively little effort made to produce confidence intervals on the Pc value based on the uncertainties in the inputs. The present effort seeks to try to carry these uncertainties through the calculation in order to generate a probability density of Pc results rather than a single average value. Methods for assessing uncertainty in the primary and secondary objects' physical sizes and state estimate covariances, as well as a resampling approach to reveal the natural variability in the calculation, are presented; and an initial proposal for operationally-useful display and interpretation of these data for a particular conjunction is given.
Publication Date: Feb 14, 2016
Document ID:
20160001643
(Acquired Feb 08, 2016)
Subject Category: STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY
Report/Patent Number: AAS 16-241, GSFC-E-DAA-TN29125
Document Type: Conference Paper
Meeting Information: AAS/AIAA Space Flight Mechanics Meeting; 26th; 14-18 Feb. 2016; Napa, CA; United States
Meeting Sponsor: American Astronomical Society; Washington, DC, United States
American Inst. of Aeronautics and Astronautics; Reston, VA, United States
Contract/Grant/Task Num: NNG14VC09C
Financial Sponsor: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt, MD United States
Organization Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt, MD United States
Description: 15p; In English
Distribution Limits: Unclassified; Publicly available; Unlimited
Rights: Copyright; Distribution under U.S. Government purpose rights; Under NASA contract NNG14VC09C
NASA Terms: EVALUATION; PROBABILITY THEORY; COLLISION AVOIDANCE; COLLISIONS; COVARIANCE; UNCERTAIN SYSTEMS; SPACECRAFT BREAKUP; SPACE DEBRIS; ORBIT DETERMINATION; SAMPLING; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; VARIABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; NEAR EARTH OBJECTS; RADII
Other Descriptors: CONJUNCTION; OPERATIONS; PROBABILITY
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