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Fast and Slow Precipitation Responses to Individual Climate Forcers: A PDRMIP Multimodel StudyPrecipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.
Document ID
20160004094
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Samset, B. H.
(Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway)
Myhre, G.
(Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway)
Forster, P.M.
(Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Hodnebrog, O.
(Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway)
Andrews, T.
(MET Office (Meteorological Office) Exeter, United Kingdom)
Faluvegi, G.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Flaschner, D.
(Max-Planck-Inst. fuer Meteorologie Hamburg, Germany)
Kasoar, M.
(Imperial Coll. of London London, United Kingdom)
Kharin, V.
(Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Gatineau, Quebec, Canada)
Kirkevag, A.
(Norwegian Meteorological Inst. Oslo, Norway)
Shindell, D.
(Duke Univ. Durham, NC, United States)
Voulgarakis, A.
(Imperial Coll. of London London, United Kingdom)
Date Acquired
March 30, 2016
Publication Date
March 16, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: Wiley
Volume: 43
Issue: 5
e-ISSN: 1944-8007
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN30736
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
environment effects
atmospheric attenuation
carbon

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