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Forecasting the Northern African Dust Outbreak Towards Europe in April 2011: A Model IntercomparisonIn the framework of the World Meteorological Organisation's Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, we evaluated the predictions of five state-of-the-art dust forecast models during an intense Saharan dust outbreak affecting western and northern Europe in April 2011. We assessed the capacity of the models to predict the evolution of the dust cloud with lead times of up to 72 hours using observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and dust surface concentrations from a ground-based measurement network. In addition, the predicted vertical dust distribution was evaluated with vertical extinction profiles from the Cloud and Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). To assess the diversity in forecast capability among the models, the analysis was extended to wind field (both surface and profile), synoptic conditions, emissions and deposition fluxes. Models predict the onset and evolution of the AOD for all analysed lead times. On average, differences among the models are larger than differences among lead times for each individual model. In spite of large differences in emission and deposition, the models present comparable skill for AOD. In general, models are better in predicting AOD than near-surface dust concentration over the Iberian Peninsula. Models tend to underestimate the long-range transport towards northern Europe. Our analysis suggests that this is partly due to difficulties in simulating the vertical distribution dust and horizontal wind. Differences in the size distribution and wet scavenging efficiency may also account for model diversity in long-range transport.
Document ID
20160007360
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Huneeus, N.
(Paris VI Univ. France)
Basart, S.
(Barcelona Supercomputing Center Barcelona, Spain)
Fiedler, S.
(Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Morcrette, J.-J.
(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reading, United Kingdom)
Benedetti, A.
(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reading, United Kingdom)
Mulcahy, J.
(MET Office (Meteorological Office) Exeter, United Kingdom)
Terradellas, E.
(Meteorological State Agency of Spain (AEMET) Barcelona, Spain)
Pérez García-Pando, C.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Pejanovic, G.
(Republic Hydrometeorological Inst. of Serbia Belgrade, Serbia)
Nickovic, S.
(Republic Hydrometeorological Inst. of Serbia Belgrade, Serbia)
Date Acquired
June 8, 2016
Publication Date
April 21, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
Volume: 16
Issue: 8
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Earth Resources And Remote Sensing
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN32449
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: US DOE DE-SC0006713
CONTRACT_GRANT: Spain RYC-2013-14159
CONTRACT_GRANT: Severo Ochoa SEV-2011-00067
CONTRACT_GRANT: EU LIFE10 ENV/IT/327
CONTRACT_GRANT: EU 7th RFP No.283576
CONTRACT_GRANT: Catalonia BE-DGR-2012
CONTRACT_GRANT: FONDAP 15110009
CONTRACT_GRANT: FONDECYT 1150873
CONTRACT_GRANT: EU-ACTRIS No. 262254
CONTRACT_GRANT: Eur.Res. Council No. 257543
CONTRACT_GRANT: CICYT CGL2013-46736
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
CONTRACT_GRANT: EU Horizon 2020 no. 633080
CONTRACT_GRANT: CICYT CGL2010-19652
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
dust storms
Europe
deposition
vertical distribution
aerosols
MODIS (radiometry)
dust
forecasting

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