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A Review of Recent Updates of Sea-Level Projections at Global and Regional ScalesSea-level change (SLC) is a much-studied topic in the area of climate research, integrating a range of climate science disciplines, and is expected to impact coastal communities around the world. As a result, this field is rapidly moving, and the knowledge and understanding of processes contributing to SLC is increasing. Here, we discuss noteworthy recent developments in the projection of SLC contributions and in the global mean and regional sea-level projections. For the Greenland Ice Sheet contribution to SLC, earlier estimates have been confirmed in recent research, but part of the source of this contribution has shifted from dynamics to surface melting. New insights into dynamic discharge processes and the onset of marine ice sheet instability increase the projected range for the Antarctic contribution by the end of the century. The contribution from both ice sheets is projected to increase further in the coming centuries to millennia. Recent updates of the global glacier outline database and new global glacier models have led to slightly lower projections for the glacier contribution to SLC (7-17 cm by 2100), but still project the glaciers to be an important contribution. For global mean sea-level projections, the focus has shifted to better estimating the uncertainty distributions of the projection time series, which may not necessarily follow a normal distribution. Instead, recent studies use skewed distributions with longer tails to higher uncertainties. Regional projections have been used to study regional uncertainty distributions, and regional projections are increasingly being applied to specific regions, countries, and coastal areas.
Document ID
20160007926
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Slangen, A. B. A.
(Utrecht Univ. Utrecht, Netherlands)
Adloff, F.
(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Toulouse, France)
Jevrejeva, S.
(National Oceanographic Centre Liverpool, UK)
Leclercq, P. W.
(Oslo Univ. Norway)
Marzeion, B.
(Bremen Univ. Germany)
Wada, Yoshihide
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Winkelmann, R.
(Potsdam Univ. Potsdam, Germany)
Date Acquired
June 27, 2016
Publication Date
June 6, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Surveys in Geophysics
Publisher: Springer Netherlands
e-ISSN: 1573-0956
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN33075
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
glaciers
Mediterranean
sea-level projections
climate
ice
terrestrial water storage
sea-level change
coasts
ice sheets

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