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Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate VariabilityWe compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.
Document ID
20160009138
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Ruane, Alex C.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Hudson, Nicholas I.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Asseng, Senthold
(Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Camarrano, Davide
(James Hutton Institute Aberdeen, United Kingdom)
Ewert, Frank
(Bonn Univ. Germany)
Martre, Pierre
(Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Montpellier, France)
Boote, Kenneth J.
(Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Thorburn, Peter J.
(Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Saint Lucia, Australia)
Aggarwal, Pramod K.
(International Water Management Institute New Delhi, INDIA)
Angulo, Carlos
(Bonn Univ. Germany)
Date Acquired
July 19, 2016
Publication Date
July 1, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Environmental Modelling and Software
Publisher: Elsevier
Volume: 81
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN31084
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 281945.02.03.03.96
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
uncertainty
climate impacts
AgMIP
wheat
crop modeling
precipitation
interannual variability
multi-model ensemble
temperature

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