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Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.
Document ID
20160010308
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Camargo, Suzana J.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Sobel, Adam H.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Del Genio, Anthony
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Jonas, Jeffrey A.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Kelley, Maxwell
(TRINNOVIM, LLC New York, NY, United States)
Lu, Yun
(Ningbo Univ. Ningbo Zhejiang, China)
Shaevitz, Daniel
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Henderson, Naomi
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
August 12, 2016
Publication Date
July 25, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography
Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
Volume: 68
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN34579
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG12HP07C
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Hurricanes
global climate model
climate change

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