Predictability of the tropical atmosphere

An examination of the deterministic predictability for tropics and middle-latitudes separately indicates that the theoretical upper limit of deterministic predictability for low latitudes is shorter than that for middle latitudes. Variability of time averages in low latitudes is mainly determined by the location and intensity of the large-scale Hadley and Walker circulations. Since these are largely influenced by the slowly varying boundary conditions of sea surface temperature and soil moisture, and since synoptic instabilities are not strong enough to change drastically the large scale flow, there is larger potential for predictability of monthly and seasonal means in low latitudes. It is conjectured that for short and medium range deterministic prediction, a prescribed diabatic heating field due to moist convection may be more useful than their explicit calculation from the evolving flow.