Evaluation of Thompson-type trend and monthly weather data models for corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

An evaluation was made of Thompson-Type models which use trend terms (as a surrogate for technology), meteorological variables based on monthly average temperature, and total precipitation to forecast and estimate corn yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Pooled and unpooled Thompson-type models were compared. Neither was found to be consistently superior to the other. Yield reliability indicators show that the models are of limited use for large area yield estimation. The models are objective and consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield forecasts and estimates can be made during the growing season by using normals or long range weather forecasts. The models are not costly to operate and are easy to use and understand. The model standard errors of prediction do not provide a useful current measure of modeled yield reliability.