Transient convection over the Amazon-Bolivia region and the dynamics of drought over Northeast Brazil

A two layer, nonlinear, equatorial beta-plane model, in p-coordinates is used to study the atmospheric response to a large scale prescribed heat source varying in time. The heat source is meant to represent a convective burst with total duration of approximately 48 hours over the Amazon/Bolivia region. The boundary conditions used are meridional velocity zero at 60 deg S, omega w = 0 at the top and zero geometric velocity at the lower boundary. Sensitivity study was done which includes initial state at rest, compared with realistic initial flow. The scale of the heat source is 1500 km in latitude and longitude and it is centered at 10 deg S. Special attention is paid to the distribution and intensity of the induced vertical motion. The model is integrated for two days and the preliminary results show agreement with the observed 200 mb flow. Of interest is the establishment of a trough and descending motion to the northeast of the heat source. A conjucture is thus made that the Amazon heat source and its fluctuations bear some relationship with the drought problem over Northeast Brazil.