Carbon dioxide catastrophes: Past and future menace

Carbon dioxide is important in its role as coupler of the terrestrial biosphere to inorganic chemical processes and as the principal greenhouse gas controlling Earth's surface temperature. The hypothesis that atmospheric CO2 levels have diminished with time, with the resulting cooling effect offsetting an increase in the solar constant, seems firmly established, and it is shown that feedback mechanisms exist which can maintain the terrestrial surface in a relatively narrow temperature range over geological time. Of the factors involved in such CO2 variation, the oceanic reservoir appears the most important. Surface waters are probably in approximate equilibrium with regard to CO2 exchange with the ambient atmosphere in most regions, but data from deep-ocean water sampling indicates that such waters are somewhat undersaturated in the sense that they would tend to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere if brought to the surface without change in composition or temperature. If major impacts into the ocean can result in loss of a substantial portion of the atmospheric CO2 reservoir, then any such future event could imperil the continuation of most higher forms of life on Earth. The most likely candidate for an inverse Nyos global event in previous Earth history is the Cretaceous-Tertiary terminal extinction event. The Cretaceous was characterized by warm, equable temperatures presumably indicative of relatively high CO2 levels and an intense greenhouse heating. Cooling of the oceans in absence of massive transfer of CO2 to the oceanic reservoir in itself would promote a condition of CO2 undersaturation in abyssal waters, and this is made even more extreme by the pattern of ocean water circulation. It is possible to envision a situation in which deep ocean waters were at least occasionally profoundly undersaturated with regard to CO2. Turnover of a major fraction of such an ocean would then remove, on a very short time scale, as much as 90 percent of the atmospheric CO2 inventory.