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Estimations of expectedness and potential surprise in possibility theoryThis note investigates how various ideas of 'expectedness' can be captured in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, we are interested in trying to introduce estimates of the kind of lack of surprise expressed by people when saying 'I would not be surprised that...' before an event takes place, or by saying 'I knew it' after its realization. In possibility theory, a possibility distribution is supposed to model the relative levels of mutually exclusive alternatives in a set, or equivalently, the alternatives are assumed to be rank-ordered according to their level of possibility to take place. Four basic set-functions associated with a possibility distribution, including standard possibility and necessity measures, are discussed from the point of view of what they estimate when applied to potential events. Extensions of these estimates based on the notions of Q-projection or OWA operators are proposed when only significant parts of the possibility distribution are retained in the evaluation. The case of partially-known possibility distributions is also considered. Some potential applications are outlined.
Document ID
19930020329
Acquisition Source
Legacy CDMS
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Prade, Henri
(Toulouse Univ. France)
Yager, Ronald R.
(Iona Coll. New Rochelle, NY., United States)
Date Acquired
September 6, 2013
Publication Date
December 1, 1992
Publication Information
Publication: NASA. Johnson Space Center, North American Fuzzy Logic Processing Society (NAFIPS 1992), Volume 1
Subject Category
Statistics And Probability
Accession Number
93N29518
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.
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