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Global Warming in the Twenty-First Century: An Alternative ScenarioA common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.
Document ID
20010056903
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Hansen, James (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Sato, Makiko (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Ruedy, Reto (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Lacis, Andrew (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Oinas, Valdar (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Travis, Larry
Date Acquired
September 7, 2013
Publication Date
August 29, 2000
Publication Information
Publication: Geophysics
Volume: 97
Issue: 18
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Meeting Information
RAG Coal International Meeting(Herndon, VA)
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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