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Forecast for the Remainder of the Leonid Storm SeasonThe dust trails of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle lead to Leonid storms on Earth, threatening satellites in orbit. We present a new model that accounts in detail for the observed properties of dust tails evolved by the comet at previous oppositions. The prediction model shows the 1767-dust trail closer to Earth's orbit in 2001 than originally thought; increasing expected peak rates for North America observers. Predictions for the 2002 storms are less affected. We demonstrate that the observed shower profiles can be understood as a projection of the comet lightcurve.
Document ID
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
Jenniskens, Peter (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence Inst. Moffett Field, CA United States)
DeVincenzi, Donald L.
Date Acquired
September 7, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2001
Subject Category
Funding Number(s)
PROJECT: RTOP 344-50-25-01
Distribution Limits
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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NameType 20020004362.pdf STI