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Future Fuel Scenarios and Their Potential Impact to AviationIn recent years fuel prices have been growing at a rapid pace. Current conservative projections predict that this is only a function of the natural volatility of oil prices, similar to the oil price spikes experienced in the 1970s. However, there is growing concern among analysts that the current price increases may not only be permanent, but that prices may continue to increase into the future before settling down at a much higher level than today. At high enough fuel prices, the aircraft industry would become very sensitive to fuel price. In this paper, the likelihood of fuel price increase is considered in three different price increase scenarios: "low," "medium," and "high." The impact of these scenarios on the aviation industry and alternatives are also addressed.
Document ID
Acquisition Source
Glenn Research Center
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
Hendricks, Robert C.
(NASA Glenn Research Center Cleveland, OH, United States)
Lowery, Nathan
(Princeton Univ. NJ, United States)
Daggett, David L.
(Boeing Commercial Airplane Group Seattle, WA, United States)
Anast, Peter
(Boeing Commercial Airplane Group Seattle, WA, United States)
Date Acquired
August 23, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2007
Subject Category
Aircraft Design, Testing And Performance
Report/Patent Number
Distribution Limits
Public Use Permitted.
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