Implementation of a Collision Probability Prediction Technique for Constellation Maneuver Planning

On March 22, 2006, the Space Technology 5 (ST5) constellation spacecraft were successfully delivered to orbit by a Pegasus XI, launch vehicle. An unexpected relative motion experienced by the constellation after orbit insertion brought about a problem. Soon after launch the observed relative position of the inert rocket body was between the leading and the middle spacecraft within the constellation. The successful planning and execution of an orbit maneuver that would create a fly-by of the rocket body was required to establish the.formation. This maneuver would create a close approach that needed to conform to predefined collision probability requirements. On April 21, 2006, the ST5 "155" spacecraft performed a large orbit maneuver and successfully passed the inert Pegasus 3rd Stage Rocket Body on April 30, 2006 15:20 UTC at a distance of 2.55 km with a Probability of Collision of less than 1.0E-06. This paper will outline the technique that was implemented to establish the safe planning and execution of the fly-by maneuver. The method makes use of Gaussian distribution models of state covariance to determine underlying probabilities of collision that arise under low velocity encounters. Specific numerical examples used for this analysis are discussed in detail. The mechanics of this technique are explained to foster deeper understanding of the concepts presented and to improve existing processes for use in future constellation maneuver planning.