A Method for Scheduling Air Traffic with Uncertain En Route Capacity Constraints

A method for scheduling ground delay and airborne holding for flights scheduled to fly through airspace with uncertain capacity constraints is presented. The method iteratively solves linear programs for departure rates and airborne holding as new probabilistic information about future airspace constraints becomes available. The objective function is the expected value of the weighted sum of ground and airborne delay. In order to limit operationally costly changes to departure rates, they are updated only when such an update would lead to a significant cost reduction. Simulation results show a 13% cost reduction over a rough approximation of current practices. Comparison between the proposed as needed replanning method and a similar method that uses fixed frequency replanning shows a typical cost reduction of 1% to 2%, and even up to a 20% cost reduction in some cases.