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Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements AnalysisThis Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.
Document ID
20100038453
Document Type
Technical Publication (TP)
Authors
Hanson, J. M. (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
Beard, B. B. (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
Date Acquired
August 25, 2013
Publication Date
September 1, 2010
Subject Category
Statistics and Probability
Report/Patent Number
M-1296
NASA/TP-2010-216447
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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