Investigation of the Impact of User Gaming in the Next Generation National Airspace System

Over the past three decades, growth in the demand for air transportation has exceeded the growth in the national airspace system (NAS) capacity. Systems operating near capacity inevitably have delays and NAS d elays have increased in recent years. The desire to minimize delay costs has placed attention on the NAS air traffic management (ATM) syste m.One initiative that has helped to provide user representation in the ATM solution is the collaborative decision making (CDM) process. CDM addresses this issue by bringing users (referred to here as airline operation centers [AOCs]) and ATM providers together for information e xchange and cooperative planning. Such cooperative planning has been instituted, for instance, for the purpose of planning airport slot control strategies and rerouting strategies. While the CDM initiatives ha ve met with much success, they have also introduced the potential for AOCs to manipulate the system in unforeseen, unintended, and perhaps undesirable ways, from a system-wide, synoptic perspective. This type of manipulation is sometimes referred to as "gaming" the system. This study uses a high-fidelity simulation tool to investigate several models of user decision making behavior which could be considered to be gaming behavior and the emergent system dynamics and interactions between AOCs and traffic management.