Athena in 2013 and Beyond

TRISA, the U.S. Army TRADOC G2 Intelligence Support Activity, received Athena 1 in 2009. They first used Athena 3 to support studies in 2011. This paper describes Athena 4, which they started using in October 2012. A final section discusses issues that are being considered for incorporation into Athena 5 and later. Athena's objective is to help skilled intelligence analysts anticipate the likely consequences of complex courses of action that use our country's entire power base, not just our military capabilities, for operations in troubled regions of the world. Measures of effectiveness emphasize who is in control and the effects of our actions on the attitudes and well-being of civilians. The planning horizon encompasses not weeks or months, but years. Athena is a scalable, laptop-based simulation with weekly resolution. Up to three months of simulated time can pass between game turns that require user interaction. Athena's geographic scope is nominally a country, but can be a region within a county. Geographic resolution is "neighborhoods", which are defined by the user and may be actual neighborhoods, provinces, or anything in between. Models encompass phenomena whose effects are expected to be relevant over a medium-term planning horizon-three months to three years. The scope and intrinsic complexity of the problem dictate a spiral development process. That is, the model is used during development and lessons learned are used to improve the model. Even more important is that while every version must consider the "big picture" at some level of detail, development priority is given to those issues that are most relevant to currently anticipated studies. For example, models of the delivery and effectiveness of information operations messaging were among the additions in Athena 4.