NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Back to Results
Making Sense of Palaeoclimate SensitivityMany palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climate change. Over the past 65 million years, this reveals a climate sensitivity (in K W−1 m2) of 0.3-1.9 or 0.6-1.3 at 95% or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2-4.8 K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.
Document ID
20140001039
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Rohling, E. J. (Southampton Univ. United Kingdom)
Sluijs, A. (Utrecht Univ. Utrecht, Netherlands)
DeConto, R. (Massachusetts Univ. Amherst, MA, United States)
Drijfhout, S. S. (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst. De Bilt, Netherlands)
Fedorov, A. (Yale Univ. New Haven, CT, United States)
Foster, G. L. (Southampton Univ. United Kingdom)
Ganopolski, A. (Potsdam-Inst. fuer Klimafolgenforschung Potsdam, Germany)
Hansen, J. (NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Honisch, B. (Columbia Univ. Palisades, NY, United States)
Hooghiemstra, H. (Amsterdam Univ. Netherlands)
Huber, M. (Purdue Univ. West Lafayette, IN, United States)
Huybers, P. (Harvard Univ. Cambridge, MA, United States)
Dijkstra, H. A. (Utrecht Univ. Utrecht, Netherlands)
Knutti, R. (Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zurich, Switzerland)
Lea, D. W. (California Univ. Santa Barbara, CA, United States)
Lourens, L. J. (Utrecht Univ. Utrecht, Netherlands)
Lunt, D. (Bristol Univ. United Kingdom)
Masson-Delmotte, V. (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique Gif-sur-Yvette, France)
Medina-Elizalde, M. (Centro de Investigacion Cientifica de Yucatan Merida, Mexico)
Otto-Bliesner, B. (National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Pagani, M. (Yale Univ. New Haven, CT, United States)
Palike, H. (Southampton Univ. United Kingdom)
Renssen, H. (Vrije Univ. Amsterdam, Netherlands)
Koehler, P. (Alfred-Wegener-Inst. for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven, Germany)
Royer, D. L. (Wesleyan Univ. Middletown, CT, United States)
Siddall, M. (Bristol Univ. United Kingdom)
Valdes, P. (Bristol Univ. United Kingdom)
Zachos, J. C. (California Univ. Santa Cruz, CA, United States)
Zeebe, R. E. (Hawaii Univ. Honolulu, HI, United States)
vandeWal, R. S. W. (Utrecht Univ. Utrecht, Netherlands)
vonderHeydt, A. S. (Utrecht Univ. Utrecht, Netherlands)
Beerling, D. J. (Sheffield Univ. United Kingdom)
Berger, A. (Universite Catholique de Louvain Belgium)
Bijl, P. K. (Utrecht Univ. Utrecht, Netherlands)
Crucifix, M. (Universite Catholique de Louvain Belgium)
Date Acquired
March 5, 2014
Publication Date
November 29, 2012
Publication Information
Publication: Nature
Volume: 491
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN8833
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NE/I009906/1
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF 0902882
CONTRACT_GRANT: ERC-259627
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF 243908
CONTRACT_GRANT: FL120100050
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.

Available Downloads

NameType 20140001039.pdf STI