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Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite ObservationsCurrent variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.
Document ID
20140007379
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
Authors
Liu, Chunlei (Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Allan, Richard P. (Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Huffman, George J. (Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
June 13, 2014
Publication Date
January 1, 2013
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN9091
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
surface temperature
precipitation
CMIP5

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