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The Main Pillar: Assessment of Space Weather Observational Asset Performance Supporting Nowcasting, Forecasting and Research to OperationsSpace weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.
Document ID
20140013005
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Posner, Arik (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Hesse, Michael (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
SaintCyr, Chris (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Date Acquired
October 15, 2014
Publication Date
April 1, 2014
Publication Information
Publication: Space Weather
Volume: 12
Issue: 4
Subject Category
Space Sciences (General)
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN14172
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
Extreme events
Forecasting
Space Weather

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