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Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison ProjectClimate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.
Document ID
20140016547
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Haywood, A. M.
(Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Hill, D.J.
(Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Dolan, A. M.
(Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Otto-Bliesner, B. L.
(National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Bragg, F.
(Bristol Univ. United Kingdom)
Chan, W.-L.
(Tokyo Univ. Kashiwa, Japan)
Chandler, M. A.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Contoux, C.
(Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Saclay, France)
Dowsett, H. J.
(Geological Survey Alexandria, VA, United States)
Jost, A.
(Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Saclay, France)
Kamae, Y.
(Tsukuba Univ. Japan)
Lohmann, G.
(Alfred-Wegener-Inst. for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven, Germany)
Lunt, D. J.
(Bristol Univ. United Kingdom)
Abe-Ouchi, A.
(Tokyo Univ. Kashiwa, Japan)
Pickering, S. J.
(Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Ramstein, G.
(Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement Saclay, France)
Rosenbloom, N. A.
(National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Salzmann, U.
(Northumbria Univ. Newcastle-upon-Tyne, United Kingdom)
Sohl, L.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Stepanek, C.
(Alfred-Wegener-Inst. for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven, Germany)
Ueda, H.
(Tsukuba Univ. Japan)
Yan, Q.
(Academia Sinica Beijing, China)
Zhang, Z.
(Academia Sinica Beijing, China)
Date Acquired
November 21, 2014
Publication Date
January 25, 2013
Publication Information
Publication: Climate of the Past
Volume: 9
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN15069
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF ATM0323516
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX10AU63A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
mathematical models
sensitivity
climate

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