How Well Does the Present Surface Inventory of Water on Mars Constrain the Past?

Over the past 40 years, estimates of the total outgassed inventory of water on Mars have ranged from a global equivalent layer (GEL) approximately 7-1000 m deep. However, Carr and Head have recently argued that it is not the total inventory of outgassed water that is important, but the amount that exists in climatically exchangeable surface and near surface reservoirs - suggesting that any exchange with water in the deep subsurface is precluded by the existence of a thick cryosphere, at least during the Amazonian and Hesperian. Based on this assumption and their estimate of the present day near-surface inventory of H2O (approximately 34 m GEL, stored as ice in the polar layered deposits (PLD), lobate debris aprons, ice-rich latitude dependent mantles, and as shallow ground ice), they extrapolate the evolution of this inventory backward in time, taking into account the introduction of new water by volcanism, outflow channel activity, and the loss of water by exospheric escape. They conclude that, at the end of the Noachian, Mars had a near-surface water inventory of approximately 24 m and approximately 62 m by the end of the Hesperian - inventories that Carr and Head argue were incompatible with the existence of a former ocean.