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Aviation Safety Concerns for the FutureThe Future Aviation Safety Team (FAST) is a multidisciplinary international group of aviation professionals that was established to identify possible future aviation safety hazards. The principle was adopted that future hazards are undesirable consequences of changes, and a primary activity of FAST became identification and prioritization of possible future changes affecting aviation. Since 2004, FAST has been maintaining a catalogue of "Areas of Change" (AoC) that could potentially influence aviation safety. The horizon for such changes is between 5 to 20 years. In this context, changes must be understood as broadly as possible. An AoC is a description of the change, not an identification of the hazards that result from the change. An ex-post analysis of the AoCs identified in 2004 demonstrates that changes catalogued many years previous were directly implicated in the majority of fatal aviation accidents over the past ten years. This paper presents an overview of the current content of the AoC catalogue and a subsequent discussion of aviation safety concerns related to these possible changes. Interactions among these future changes may weaken critical functions that must be maintained to ensure safe operations. Safety assessments that do not appreciate or reflect the consequences of significant interaction complexity will not be fully informative and can lead to inappropriate trade-offs and increases in other risks. The FAST strongly encourages a system-wide approach to safety risk assessment across the global aviation system, not just within the domain for which future technologies or operational concepts are being considered. The FAST advocates the use of the "Areas of Change" concept, considering that several possible future phenomena may interact with a technology or operational concept under study producing unanticipated hazards.
Document ID
20160014533
Document Type
Conference Paper
External Source(s)
Authors
Smith, Brian E. (NASA Ames Research Center Moffett Field, CA United States)
Roelen, Alfred L. C. (Netherlands aerospace centre NONA - JP sent to MG)
den Hertog, Rudi (Netherlands Aircraft Co. Amsterdam, Netherlands)
Date Acquired
December 7, 2016
Publication Date
November 3, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Safety Studies
Volume: 2
Issue: 2
Subject Category
Air Transportation and Safety
Report/Patent Number
ARC-E-DAA-TN36294
Meeting Information
International Cross-Industry Safety Conference (ICSC)(Amsterdam)
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 999182.02.75.01.01
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Public Use Permitted.
Keywords
emerging risks
change management
aviation safety

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