A simulation study of Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) technology

The author has identified the following significant results. The LACIE performance predictor (LPP) was used to replicate LACIE phase 2 for a 15 year period, using accuracy assessment results for phase 2 error components. Results indicated that the (LPP) simulated the LACIE phase 2 procedures reasonably well. For the 15 year simulation, only 7 of the 15 production estimates were within 10 percent of the true production. The simulations indicated that the acreage estimator, based on CAMS phase 2 procedures, has a negative bias. This bias was too large to support the 90/90 criterion with the CV observed and simulated for the phase 2 production estimator. Results of this simulation study validate the theory that the acreage variance estimator in LACIE was conservative.