Parametric instabilities in computer system performance prediction

Results found by applying a predictive model to a particular system (University of Maryland Computer Center's Univak 1100/42) are presented. Given the correct model parameters, the system performance from the model closely matches the actual system observed performance. However, the major application of system modeling is the prediction of performance when the system configuration is altered. The prediction results presented are disappointing but useful with the major problem traced to parametric instabilities. The interactions between the user demands, overhead activities, and device characteristics must be considered in developing system models.