Accuracy and performance of LACIE yield estimates in major wheat producing regions of the world

The LACIE yield models developed, implemented, and tested during the three phases of the experiment represent the first generation of models designed for the large-scale prediction of wheat production. The models are capable of supporting the stated project goal of being within 10 percent of the actual wheat production 90 percent of the time. The limitations of the models are inherent in their nature. The temporal resolution limits their ability to handle the erratic weather occurring in critical situations. The relatively large spatial resolution of the individual models limits the capture of localized but important episodic events.