Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix D: Sensitivity analysis resport

Parametric analyses, using a hybrid vehicle synthesis and economics program (HYVELD) are described investigating the sensitivity of hybrid vehicle cost, fuel usage, utility, and marketability to changes in travel statistics, energy costs, vehicle lifetime and maintenance, owner use patterns, internal combustion engine (ICE) reference vehicle fuel economy, and drive-line component costs and type. The lowest initial cost of the hybrid vehicle would be $1200 to $1500 higher than that of the conventional vehicle. For nominal energy costs ($1.00/gal for gasoline and 4.2 cents/kWh for electricity), the ownership cost of the hybrid vehicle is projected to be 0.5 to 1.0 cents/mi less than the conventional ICE vehicle. To attain this ownership cost differential, the lifetime of the hybrid vehicle must be extended to 12 years and its maintenance cost reduced by 25 percent compared with the conventional vehicle. The ownership cost advantage of the hybrid vehicle increases rapidly as the price of fuel increases from $1 to $2/gal.