Atmospheric drag as the cause of the secular decrease in the semimajor axis of LAGEOS's orbit

An unmodeled acceleration is causing the semimajor axis of LAGEOS to decrease at the rate of about 1.1 mm/day. Drag from charged particles or neutral helium or both is the most probable cause. The rate of orbital decay is conceivably explained by the theories of charged particle drag. Unfortunately, these theories are not yet developed to the point where a definitive statement as to the importance of charged particle drag can be made. Neutral helium may also be the cause of the orbital decay. While the abundance required to account for the secular decrease is high, it also helps solve the 'helium problem'. Neutral hydrogen probably accounts for no more than 12 percent of the observed decay.