Prediction and monitoring of clear-air turbulence - An evaluation of the applicability of the rawinsonde system

The importance of sensing turbulent layers in the free atmosphere to further progress in the area of clear air turbulence (CAT) prediction is stressed. The results of an investigation of the applicability of rawinsonde (RW) profiles for the detection of CAT are discussed. It is noted that previous studies have determined that the most significant factor for the existence of turbulent layers is the magnitude of the vertical shear. Certain shear-layer criteria, which are obtained from theoretically consistent statistics of detailed vertical wind profiles, are applied to statistical comparisons of conjunctive rawinsonde and Jimsphere/Jimsonde (J/J) vertical profiles made between 1 and 15 km. It is found that a loose relationship exists between J/J and RW shears. That is, the cross-correlation coefficient that compares their respective shears at the same levels is quite small. This is seen as suggesting that no general statement can be made in consideration of critical shear criteria with respect to RW shears. The suggestion is made that reasons for such a loose empirical relationship include the mesoscale nature of the apparent CAT mechanism.