VAS assessment status and preliminary results

The VAS soundings, produced in real time on an hourly basis, consistently delineate the areas of the country where intense convective weather will occur several hours in advance of the severe weather developments. This conclusion is based on the daily experience gained. An objective method of forecasting the probability of severe weather for 100 kilometer square areas of the United States from the VAS soundings was presented. An example sequence of these probability forecasts and the subsequent observed severe weather is included.