A quantitative model of geomagnetic activity

A quantitative model of geomagnetic activity is developed and utilized to investigate the causes of the diurnal, seasonal, and IMF sector variations in the AL index records. This auroral index was chosen for study because of its high sensitivity to the strength of the westward electrojet and, hence, magnetospheric substorm activity. After the introduction of corrections for processes not related to substorms, ability of the function Bs to the 0.85th power x V squared to produce the observed variations in AL was examined. The annual variation of Bs was determined by superposing the contributions to Bs due to the inclination of the magnetic axis (Russell and McPherron, 1973) on an empirical mean distribution of Bz. V was assumed constant. The predicted values of ALc have been compared with observed averages for 9 years of solar cycle 20. The predicted annual variation of ALc for toward and away sectors are in good agreement with observation. While the predicted semi-annual component of ALc is in phase with observation, it is less than half the observed amplitude. The predicted diurnal variation of ALc for June is in satisfactory agreement with observation.